Ukraine’s Remarkable Turnaround

After the annexation of Crimea in March of 2014, Ukraine entered a brief sphere of relevance in global politics. The spotlight garnered substantial support from Western allies – primarily NATO and EU member nations, among others. Once the sensationalism of the event faded and the priorities of others shifted over time, the attention on Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine gradually faded.

On February 24, 2022, the world’s attention suddenly returned to the post-Soviet country when a formal invasion - officially branded as a “special military operation” - by the Russian Federation commenced. What was anticipated to be a three-day operation ultimately became an over 4-year full-scale invasion and struggle for Russian forces. It is July of 2026. Today, Russia controls arguably 20% of Ukraine’s land, including the Crimean peninsula that was seized in 2014. Since February 2022, Russia has suffered between 1.3 and 1.45 million military casualties. Russia has suffered casualties that are roughly equal to the entire population of Estonia, all to gain 45,000 square miles.

Ukraine, with the support of its European, American, and other allies around the globe, has been displaying remarkable defensive resilience; in the last few months, however, there has been a significant change in Ukraine’s warfare doctrine: a shift from defense to offense. Notably, Zelenskyy has seen victories on two fronts: Belarus and Russian oil.

Belarus: The Under-The-Rug Victory

The full-scale Russo-Ukrainian War, post-Crimea, began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through its closest ally: Belarus. Chosen for its proximity to Ukraine’s capital city - Kyiv - Belarus steadfastly provided Russia with military passage and assistance. In April of 2022, Russia completely withdrew from the Belarusian (Northern) invasion front, redeploying its troops to the Donbas (Eastern) front.

As of recent years, Belarus no longer acts as the gateway to Ukraine: instead, Belarus has been a passive supporter and enabler of Russian aggression. Namely, Belarus has been permitting four Moscow-installed relay stations for Russian drones and unmanned aircraft targeting Western Ukraine. Western Ukraine is known to be particularly vulnerable to drone and aerial attacks due to its relative lack of drone interceptors and maintained advanced air defense systems.

Recognizing the danger of the continued operation of these relay stations, Zelenskyy issued an ultimatum to Lukashenko - the reigning authoritarian leader of Belarus. As of June 29th, according to Al Jazeera reports, Lukashenko has quietly acquiesced to the ultimatum, shutting down all four stations. In June alone, Ukraine scored a tactical victory in Belarus, which is expected to hurt Russia’s unmanned aerial capabilities in Ukraine, particularly Western Ukraine.

Russian Oil: Bringing the War Back To Russia

There is a huge element that both Russian public morale and the Russian economy share: oil refining, or, more specifically, a dependence on it. Russia’s oil and natural gas exports account for roughly a quarter of Russia’s GDP, while much of the civilian population maintains an ethos of apathy towards the war, so long as it is kept away from home. Aware of this vulnerability, Ukraine has targeted eight of the ten largest Russian oil refineries. Namely, Ukraine has successfully damaged the:

• Moscow (Kapotnya) Refinery, causing a total shutdown

• Nizhnyy Novgorod (NORSI) Refinery, specifically its primary crude distillation unit, suspending its operations

• Ryazan Refinery, specifically its aviation fuel lines

• Yaroslavl Refinery, disrupting its barrel capacity

• Kirishi (KINEF) Refinery, specifically its primary processing unit

• Permnefteorgsintez Refinery, suspending operations

• Tatarstan (TANECO) Refinery, suspending crude processing

• Bashkortostan Refinery, specifically processing units

The damage has been experienced not just by the refineries, but by the Russian civilian population, where multitudes of municipal jurisdictions have implemented strict fuel rationing. In some cases, municipalities have designated fuel for emergency vehicles only, while others have experienced significant price hikes. Many Russian civilians now worry about the true distance of the war, with New York Times reports suggesting serious unrest in discussions of the Russo-Ukrainian War in Russia.

Economically, the damage inflicted by Ukraine’s offensive drone doctrine has been quite severe for Russia’s exports. The damage has caused a 1.76 billion dollar deficit through lost export revenues, with a 13.6% crash in Russia’s oil product exports. Even for Putin, the damage has been hard to dismiss.

In the last few months, Ukraine has had some much-needed tactical victories, outside of the battlefield. Although the end of the war seems to elude us, Ukraine can celebrate a brighter outlook on the conclusion, as Putin wrestles with a drone-induced energy/fuel crisis.