A Republican California?

It is statistically unlikely. California has 10.37 million registered Democrats and 5.78 million registered Republicans; Democrats overwhelmingly dominate the state. Yet somehow, two frontrunner Republicans have led the California governor polls while a Democratic base remains split among four likely candidates. There are multiple reasons why Republicans are optimistic about this race: the top-two primary system, Democratic division, and a string of ongoing controversy.

Had this election been held anywhere but a state with a top-two primary system, it would not be a concern for California's predominantly liberal electorate. The top-two system can result in the advancement of solely Republican candidates. Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco have been leading the polls, with Hilton in first and Bianco trailing in second. If this trend holds, Californians will likely see a general election face-off between two Republicans, so long as the Democratic candidates fail to consolidate their vote before the primary.

The brunt of this battle will not be a traditional Republican-versus-Democrat clash. It will be something messier: a Democratic free-for-all. Just as one candidate, then-representative Eric Swalwell, seemed to emerge from the pack, a series of allegations devastated his image, forcing him to withdraw. Since Swalwell's exit, the remaining Democratic candidates have scrambled to win over his former supporters amid uncertainty. Others, like Betty Yee, have also dropped out, citing fundraising concerns and weak voter support.

Four Democrats remain in the race: Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Matt Mahan. Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund founder and environmentalist, currently leads in Democratic polling, though former California attorney general Xavier Becerra has gained substantially since Swalwell's exit. The candidate pool is ideologically diverse, ranging from Becerra's experience-first platform to Steyer's progressive environmentalism. Some Democrats have also raised concerns about Steyer's extreme personal wealth as a liability.

Despite the Democratic division, an unexpected factor may actually boost the party's chances: Trump. His recent endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton is likely to concentrate a dispersed Republican base toward Hilton, at the expense of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco's bid. For a Republican face-off in the general election, both Bianco and Hilton need to advance and hold their leads into the primary. Trump's endorsement could prove decisive for Hilton while dragging Bianco's second-place standing down far enough for a Democrat to break through.

It remains to be seen whether any Democratic candidate will manage to consolidate California's left and dethrone the current top two. Ballots are arriving within a matter of months. Two months will determine whether California extends fifteen consecutive years of Democratic governorship, or finds itself navigating something it has not seen in a generation.